Russia and Ukraine Timeline 2009 - 2024

2009: Russian and Ukrainian gas pipelines

• January: Russia halts natural gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid debts and pricing disputes, disrupting Europe’s energy supply during a harsh winter.
• February: A tense standoff ensues, with Europe mediating as nations struggle with shortages, exposing reliance on Russian gas and Ukraine's strategic role.
• February: A deal restores gas flow, but the crisis highlights deep Russia-Ukraine tensions and Europe’s energy vulnerability, prompting calls for diversification.

2010-2013: A Shift in Power

• 2010: Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian politician, is elected President of Ukraine.
• 2013: Ukraine moves closer to signing an association agreement with the European Union, sparking protests from pro-Russian factions.

2014: Euromaidan and Russian Intervention

• November 2013: Pro-European protests, known as Euromaidan, erupt in Kyiv. The role of the US and NATO in supporting the Euromaidan protests has been a subject of debate. Some argue that Western countries, particularly the US, provided financial and political support to the protesters. Others contend that the protests were a genuine grassroots movement.

• February - March 2014: Yanukovych flees the country.

Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in February and March of 2014. The invasion began after Ukraine's Euromaidan protests led to the ousting of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was seen as pro-Russian. This political upheaval created a power vacuum in Ukraine, which Russia exploited. 

Key events include:

• Deployment of Troops: In late February 2014, Russian troops, often described as "little green men" because they wore unmarked uniforms, seized key government and military installations in Crimea.  

• Referendum: On March 16, 2014, a controversial referendum was held in Crimea under Russian control, claiming that 97% of voters supported joining Russia. The referendum was widely regarded as illegitimate by Ukraine and the international community. 

• Annexation: On March 18, 2014, Russia formally annexed Crimea, incorporating it as part of the Russian Federation. This move was condemned by the United Nations and many countries as a violation of international law. 

• Russia justified the annexation by citing historical claims to Crimea and protecting the rights of Russian-speaking residents. However, critics argue it was a strategic move to secure control over Crimea’s Black Sea ports and military bases.

• April 2014: Pro-Russian separatists, backed by Russia, seize control of parts of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

2014-2022: Civil War in the Donbas

• 2014-2022: A low-intensity war rages in the Donbas region, with sporadic clashes and shelling. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions declared independence, forming self-proclaimed republics, the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). Ukraine’s government launched a military operation to regain control, sparking a low-intensity war marked by periodic escalations. Russia backed he DRP and LPR, while NATO back Ukrainian forces.

• 2015: The Minsk Protocol and Minsk II agreements are signed, aiming to end the conflict but are only partially implemented.

Russia’s Role

Russia played a direct and decisive role in supporting the separatist movements in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR):

• Military Support: Russia provided weapons, training, and logistical support to the separatists, including advanced systems like the Buk missile system (allegedly used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17). Russian regular troops occasionally joined major offensives, though Moscow denied their presence.
• Financial and Political Backing: Russia financially propped up the separatist regions and issued passports to residents, effectively integrating them into Russian systems.
• Information Warfare: Russian media and officials spread narratives blaming Ukraine and the West for the conflict, framing the separatists as defending Russian-speaking populations from alleged persecution. 

NATO and Western Support

NATO and Western nations backed Ukraine in its fight against the separatists, though this support stopped short of direct military intervention:

• Military Aid: Western nations, particularly the United States, supplied Ukraine with non-lethal aid early in the conflict, such as medical supplies, training, and communications equipment. From 2018 onward, this expanded to include Javelin anti-tank missiles and other lethal aid to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
• Training and Advisory Missions: NATO countries conducted training missions for Ukrainian forces, focusing on modernizing Ukraine’s military and improving command structures.
• Sanctions on Russia: Western nations imposed extensive sanctions targeting Russia’s economy, key individuals, and industries, aiming to deter further aggression.
• Diplomatic Support: NATO and the EU consistently backed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in international forums.

 

Foreign Fighters and Mercenaries

• Pro-Russian Fighters: In addition to Russian troops, volunteers and mercenaries from Russia and other post-Soviet states joined separatist ranks. The Wagner Group, a private military company with Kremlin ties, was rumored to have operated in the region, providing highly skilled combatants.
• Pro-Ukrainian Fighters: Foreign volunteers from Europe, North America, and even the Caucasus joined Ukraine’s forces, often through the Ukrainian Foreign Legion or nationalist battalions like Azov Regiment. These fighters were motivated by solidarity with Ukraine or opposition to Russian aggression.

 

Proxy War Dynamics

• Russia used the separatists to destabilize Ukraine, preventing its closer integration with NATO and the EU while avoiding a full-scale invasion until 2022.
• NATO supported Ukraine to counter Russian influence, with a focus on containing aggression without sparking direct conflict between NATO and Russia.

This interplay between Russian and NATO-backed efforts made the Donbas a critical flashpoint in the broader East-West rivalry.

• 2021-2022: Russia builds up military forces on Ukraine's borders, leading to increased tensions.

2022: Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine

• February 24, 2022: Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, escalating from the limited conflict in the Donbas to an all-out war. Russian President Vladimir Putin justified the invasion by citing the need to protect Russian-speaking populations, achieve the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, and counter perceived NATO encroachment. These claims were widely dismissed by Ukraine and Western nations as baseless pretexts for aggression.

Initial Phase of the Invasion

• Targets and Strategy: Russian forces attacked Ukraine from multiple directions—north (via Belarus), east (from Russia and separatist-held areas), and south (via Crimea). Initial targets included Kyiv, Kharkiv, and strategic cities in the Donbas and southern regions like Mariupol.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukraine, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, mounted an unexpectedly fierce resistance. Ukrainian forces, bolstered by territorial defense units and volunteers, utilized advanced Western weapons, such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft systems, to blunt Russian advances.
• Global Response: Western nations quickly condemned the invasion, imposing sweeping sanctions on Russia, targeting its economy, oligarchs, and central bank reserves. Military aid to Ukraine increased significantly, and millions of Ukrainians fled as refugees.

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2022-Present: Intense Fighting Across Ukraine

• The war settled into a grueling conflict characterized by heavy casualties, artillery duels, and urban warfare. Russia shifted its focus to eastern and southern Ukraine after failing to capture Kyiv. Key developments include:
• Siege of Mariupol: Russia’s relentless bombardment reduced the port city of Mariupol to ruins. The Azovstal steel plant, where Ukrainian fighters made their last stand, became a symbol of resistance.
• Capture of Southern Ukraine: Russia seized key areas, including Kherson and parts of Zaporizhzhia, to secure a land corridor to Crimea and control over the Black Sea coastline.
• Atrocities and War Crimes: Reports of mass killings, such as those in Bucha, and widespread destruction in cities like Kharkiv, underscored the humanitarian cost of the war.

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2023: Ukraine’s Counteroffensives and Recapturing Territory

In 2023, Ukraine launched a counteroffensives, reclaiming territory and temporarily shifting the war’s momentum:

• Kharkiv Counteroffensive (September 2022): Ukrainian forces launched a lightning-fast assault in the northeast, liberating large swaths of the Kharkiv region and forcing Russian retreats.
• Kherson Counteroffensive (November 2022): After months of pressure, Ukrainian forces reclaimed Kherson, the first major city captured by Russia, dealing a strategic and symbolic blow to Moscow.
• Continued Push in 2023: Ukraine launched further offensives in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions, liberating key villages and pushing toward occupied cities like Melitopol.

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NATO Escalations and Requests for Peace

• Military Aid: NATO nations dramatically increased military support for Ukraine, providing advanced weapons, training, and intelligence. Systems like the HIMARS precision rocket launchers and Leopard 2 tanks bolstered Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian-occupied areas.
• Defensive Posture: NATO strengthened its eastern flank, deploying additional troops and equipment to member states bordering Ukraine and Russia. Military exercises were intensified to deter further Russian aggression.
• Membership Aspirations: Ukraine intensified its push for NATO membership, viewing it as essential for long-term security. While NATO offered political and material support, full membership remained a contentious issue to avoid provoking direct conflict with Russia.

Calls for Peace

• Ukraine’s Position: Kyiv demands the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas, and accountability for Russian war crimes.
• Russia’s Stance: Moscow insists on recognition of its annexations and a neutral Ukraine, rejecting Western influence.
• International Mediation: Countries like Turkey and China have attempted to mediate, but ceasefires have been short-lived, and no comprehensive agreement has been reached.

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Present Situation

The war remains highly volatile, with heavy fighting concentrated in the Donbas and southern frontlines. Both sides have suffered immense casualties, and while Ukraine continues to receive robust Western support, the conflict shows little sign of resolution, raising concerns about its long-term humanitarian and geopolitical impacts.